| Background |
- Born and raised in Merced, CA; B.A. in Political Science, UC Santa Barbara
- Legislative aide, California State Legislature; lecturer in state politics & policymaking, UC Merced
- California State Senate (District 12), 2007–2011
- California State Assembly (District 21), 2012–2022 (decade of legislative experience)
- Won CA-13 in 2024 by 187 votes—the last House race called and the closest in the nation
- Lost 2022 CA-13 general to John Duarte by 564 votes
- Member: New Democrat Coalition; Blue Dog Coalition
- Committees: Natural Resources; House Agriculture (relevant to district’s farming economy)
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- Born in San Joaquin County; raised in Stockton, CA; son of a Mexican-American mother and African-American father
- U.S. Marine Corps veteran; served on Marine One during the George W. Bush administration
- Career in private security sector management (AlliedBarton, Securitas AB)
- Ordained pastor; previously resigned from pastorate to serve as mayor full-time
- Mayor of Stockton, 2021–2025—defeated incumbent Michael Tubbs by ~13 points in 2020
- Ran for CA-9 in 2024; lost to Rep. Josh Harder 48.2%–51.8%
- Switched to CA-13 following Prop. 50 redistricting (Stockton added to district)
- Education: A.S. Business; B.S. Business Management; M.S. Executive Leadership
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| Key Priorities |
- Water infrastructure & agriculture: Central Valley Project modernization; new reservoir capacity; permitting reform (SPEED Act; WATER Act; Central Valley Water Solution Act)
- Farm bill advocacy: secured Central Valley provisions in Farm, Food & National Security Act of 2026
- Affordable Care Act: led effort to extend ACA enhanced premium tax credits for 3 years
- Bipartisan infrastructure & permitting reform (CERTAIN Act; co-led with Republicans)
- Public safety & law enforcement resources
- Responsible ICE enforcement—sent letter questioning detention policy impacts on local law enforcement
- Veterans’ healthcare & education
- Fiscal moderation: Blue Dog / New Dem approach to balanced budgets and cost reduction
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- Cost of living reduction—central campaign theme for families “left behind”
- Border security; supports Trump immigration enforcement policies
- Public safety & anti-crime (cited crime reduction as Stockton mayor priority)
- Good schools and community investment (pro-growth, pro-housing platform)
- American manufacturing & energy dominance
- Term limits (signed U.S. Term Limits pledge)
- Pro-Trump legislative agenda: tax cuts, deregulation, energy production
- Putting “American workers first”—NRCC-aligned platform
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| Key Endorsements |
- DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee)—priority seat
- California Farm Bureau—key bipartisan signal in agricultural district
- Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA)—endorsed in 2022 and 2024; expected 2026
- Modesto Bee and Fresno Bee (editorial endorsements in 2024)
- Broad coalition of local elected officials across all five district counties
- Mayors from across the Central Valley (bipartisan local support)
- Labor and business community leaders in Merced and surrounding counties
- AIPAC (pro-Israel PAC; co-sponsored Gottheimer Iran resolution)
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- President Donald Trump (personal endorsement)
- Speaker Mike Johnson (House Republican leadership)
- NRCC—named to “MAGA Majority” program (first round, March 2026)
- Former Rep. John Duarte (R)—prior CA-13 incumbent endorsed Lincoln shortly after his entry
- U.S. Term Limits (pledge signer)
- Republican Party of California
- Agricultural and business community supporters in San Joaquin County
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| Advantages |
- Incumbent with proven district delivery—bipartisan water, farm bill, and infrastructure wins in first term
- Prop. 50 redistricting added more Democrats to CA-13—new map considered more favorable to Gray
- Fundraising lead—Gray holds more cash on hand heading into the general per FEC filings
- DCCC full institutional support: staff, data, air support, voter contact
- California Farm Bureau endorsement signals crossover appeal with Republican-leaning farmers
- Moderate “Blue Dog” brand suits swing district; does not threaten conservatives on guns, water, or ag
- Deep roots and three previous campaigns in the district—name recognition advantage
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- Trump personal endorsement activates national MAGA donor and volunteer networks
- NRCC “MAGA Majority” program provides national GOP infrastructure and ad spending
- Executive experience as mayor of Stockton—California’s 11th largest city
- Marine Corps veteran background resonates with military-heavy Valley communities
- Stockton now inside redrawn CA-13—Lincoln is a known local figure there
- Came within 2.4 points of winning CA-9 in 2024—proven competitive general election candidate
- Unique biography (Black/Latino Marine veteran pastor) complicates Democratic attack lines
- Speaker Johnson endorsement adds House leadership prestige and fundraising contacts
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| Vulnerabilities |
- Razor-thin 2024 win (187 votes) signals persistent competitiveness—no margin for error
- Three consecutive close races show structural drag; district is not safe Blue territory
- Foreign policy positions (pro-Israel, AIPAC-linked) risk voter discontent among Arab American and progressive communities
- Co-sponsored Gottheimer Iran resolution—voted against Khanna-Massie war powers effort—exposed as insufficiently anti-war for activists
- Missed vote rate (5.3%) higher than median congressional member—potential contrast target
- Blue Dog brand may depress progressive base turnout if enthusiasm lags
- Republican midterm environment could stall expected Democratic structural gains
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- Lost CA-9 in 2024—this is his second consecutive congressional race attempt; label as a repeat loser
- Redrawn CA-13 favors Democrats—Prop. 50 added more Democratic voters intentionally
- Strong Trump alignment may be a liability in a competitive general (Trump lost CA broadly)
- Not a district native in the same way Gray is—Stockton-centric identity vs. Merced-centered district core
- Platform lacks detailed agricultural policy—a weakness in the nation’s most productive farmland
- Anti-midterm wave environment for GOP: national mood expected to disadvantage Republicans in 2026
- Gray has legislatively delivered on water and ag—Lincoln must overcome a record of tangible constituent results
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| Campaign & Major Donors |
- 2024 cycle total expenditures: ~$3.15M (OpenSecrets); fundraising heavily again for 2026
- FEC data confirms Gray holds more cash on hand heading into the general than Lincoln
- DCCC “Frontline” program provides independent expenditure support and national fundraising infrastructure
- AIPAC and affiliated pro-Israel PAC contributions (co-sponsored their favored Iran resolution)
- Agricultural industry donors; water infrastructure and construction interests
- JDCA-affiliated Jewish donor network
- New Democrat Coalition PAC and Blue Dog PAC affiliated support
- Labor unions and local business associations across the five-county district
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- FEC data shows Lincoln fundraising and spending heavily; trails Gray in cash on hand
- NRCC independent expenditures expected to supplement Lincoln’s campaign committee
- Congressional Leadership Fund (GOP super PAC) likely to invest given MAGA Majority designation
- Trump small-dollar donor network (national list access via MAGA Majority program)
- San Joaquin County business and real estate donor base from mayoral networks
- Former Rep. John Duarte donor contacts—inherited when Duarte endorsed Lincoln
- National Republican dark money and party infrastructure expected to activate
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| Foreign Policy |
- Voted against the Khanna-Massie bipartisan War Powers Resolution to end U.S. involvement in the Iran war
- Co-sponsored the Gottheimer alternative Iran resolution (H.Con.Res. 75)—a more moderate, pro-Israel alternative that set a March 30 deadline for the conflict
- Statement on Iran: “The Constitution is clear—Congress carries the solemn responsibility to declare war. The President must present a clear strategy… before the U.S. is drawn further into another conflict.”
- AIPAC-endorsed; cited Iran’s funding of Hamas and Hezbollah as threats to allies
- Called for congressional oversight of military engagement without endorsing full withdrawal
- Welcomed $540M in federal water infrastructure funding secured via One Big Beautiful Bill Act
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- Fully aligned with Trump foreign policy framework—pledges to support Trump’s America First agenda in Congress
- Supports Trump-backed military engagement with Iran as part of broad national security posture
- No public break with GOP on Israel or Middle East policy; expected to vote with House Republican majority on defense and foreign aid
- Emphasizes border security as a national security issue interlinking domestic and foreign policy
- Platform does not include specific foreign policy positions beyond America First framework and strong U.S.-Israel alliance support
- As a Marine Corps veteran, frames military posture through lens of service and national strength
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